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NCCI’s Quarterly Economics Briefing (QEB) – Q1 2025

19 Mar, 2025 NCCI

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“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times …”

The opening line of Charles Dickens’ literary classic, A Tale of Two Cities, may not be the first thing that comes to mind when thinking about 2024’s economy. As we look back on the year, however, the description is quite apt. Gross domestic product (GDP) growth outperformed expectations, the unemployment rate remained low, and inflation decelerated during the year. Going further: household incomes rose, the Fed started lowering interest rates, and the stock market produced outsized returns. However, despite strong economic indicators, public perception of the economy remained largely negative.

In this brief, we will review how the economy performed during 2024, compare it to people’s perceptions of how the economy performed, and explore the mismatch between the data and perception. Then, we will dust off our crystal ball and explore what the future might hold for the economy and workers compensation for the rest of 2025.

Key Themes and Takeaways

  • Most aggregate data showed a strong US economy in 2024; however, perceptions of economic health are far more mixed.
  • The slowing labor market and moderate trend in medical inflation are key items we are watching for workers compensation in 2025.
  • Elevated uncertainty in 2025 supports the cautious stance on the economy that we moved to in late 2024.

Check out the full Quarterly Economics Briefing to learn more.

Don’t miss The State of the Economy and Its Impact on Workers Compensation, with Executive Director and Senior Economist, Stephen Cooper, only at NCCI's Annual Insights Symposium 2025.

Connect with our Economics Team if you have questions or want to gain additional insights.

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